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曹 璐, 高 苹, 吴洪颜*.江苏省小麦赤霉病多因子综合风险评估与区划[J].植物保护,2020,46(4):105-109.
江苏省小麦赤霉病多因子综合风险评估与区划
Multi-factor comprehensive risk assessment and zoning map of wheat scab epidemics in Jiangsu province
投稿时间:2019-04-26  修订日期:2019-06-14
DOI:10.16688/j.zwbh.2019216
中文关键词:  小麦赤霉病  气候条件  风险区划  应灾能力
英文关键词:wheat scab  meteorological conditions  risk zoning  disaster-bearing capability
基金项目:国内外作物产量预报专项
作者单位E-mail
曹 璐, 高 苹, 吴洪颜* 江苏省气象局, 南京 210008 jsqx_zqzb@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      根据小麦赤霉病的发生特点和灾害风险分析理论,确定小麦赤霉病综合风险评估指标。本文利用江苏省1961年-2017年67个气象站气象数据和农业统计资料,结合地理信息和土壤数据构建了综合风险评估模型,基于GIS空间分析技术将江苏省划分为小麦赤霉病发生低风险区、中等风险区、高风险区和极高风险区。结果表明:江苏省小麦赤霉病的高风险区位于淮河以南地区,其中里下河和沿江东部赤霉病流行风险最高,需加强预防和治理。
英文摘要:
      Based on the characteristics of wheat scab occurrence and the theory of disaster risk analysis, a set of comprehensive risk indexes of wheat scab were derived. In this study, we used meteorological and agricultural statistics datasets of 67 stations in Jiangsu province from 1961 to 2017, combined with geographic information and soil data, to construct a comprehensive risk assessment model. With GIS spatial analysis technology, four zones, i.e., low-risk, medium-risk, high-risk and very-high-risk zones for wheat scab in Jiangsu, were differentiated according to the assessment model. The results showed that the high-risk areas of wheat scab in Jiangsu were located in the south of Huaihe River, and the risk of wheat scab was the highest in Lixia River and the eastern part of the Yangtze River, where the prevention and management of wheat scad need to be strengthened.
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