| 袁文镒1, 2, 王山宁2, 张大为3, 4, 李 倩4, 王 甦2, 金振宇1*, 杨 帆2*.基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下香梨优斑螟在中国的潜在地理分布[J].植物保护,2025,51(4):131-140. |
| 基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下香梨优斑螟在中国的潜在地理分布 |
| Modeling the potential geographic distribution of Euzophera pyriella in China under climate change using the MaxEnt model |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-24 修订日期：2024-09-24 |
| DOI：10.16688/j.zwbh.2024439 |
| 中文关键词: 香梨优斑螟 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 适生区 模型参数优化 |
| 英文关键词:Euzophera pyriella MaxEnt model climate change suitable habitat model parameter optimization |
| 基金项目:国家桃产业技术体系（CARS-30-3-05）；北京市科学技术协会青年人才托举工程（BYESS2023474）；北京市农林科学院科技创新能力建设专项（KJCX20240509） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 袁文镒1, 2, 王山宁2, 张大为3, 4, 李 倩4, 王 甦2, 金振宇1*, 杨 帆2* | 1. 长江大学农学院, 湖北省农林病虫害预警与调控工程技术研究中心, 荆州 434020
2. 北京市农林科学院植物保护研究所, 农业农村部北方果蔬有害生物绿色防控重点实验室, 北方果树病虫害绿色防控北京市重点实验室, 北京 100097
3. 甘肃省农业科学院植物保护研究所, 兰州 730070
4. 中国农业科学院植物保护研究所, 植物病虫害综合治理全国重点实验室, 北京 100193 | 金振宇ahk_731@163.com; 杨帆evelynyangfan@163.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 香梨优斑螟Euzophera pyriella对多种果树构成严重威胁, 影响果树产业的发展。为评估在不同气候条件下香梨优斑螟在我国的潜在地理分布及适生区的空间格局变化, 通过筛选影响该虫分布的关键环境变量, 基于其在我国的分布数据, 采用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件, 预测了香梨优斑螟在当前和未来气候情景下(SSP245: 2041-2060、2061-2080和SSP585: 2041-2060、2061-2080)的潜在分布范围和适生区变化。结果显示, MaxEnt模型受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic, ROC)下训练AUC均值为(0.992±0.002 3), 表明模型预测准确。香梨优斑螟的潜在适生区主要集中在我国西北地区, 温度和湿度是影响其分布的主要环境因子。在当前气候条件下, 香梨优斑螟主要分布于新疆塔克拉玛干沙漠以北, 天山山脉南侧、甘肃河西走廊地区, 以及兰州北部的黄土高原地区、宁夏地区、内蒙古地区以及青海部分地区, 适生区总面积87.75万km2, 其中高适生区面积5.39万km2, 中适生区面积13.06万km2, 低适生区面积69.3万km2。未来气候条件下, 这些地区的适生区范围将进一步扩大, 几何中心在SSP245情境下先向南再向北移动, 总体呈现向北扩张, 而SSP585情境下几何中心先向东后向西移动, 总体呈现向西扩张且适生区面积相比当前气候都有所增加。由此可见, 香梨优斑螟的适生区集中在我国西北地区, 该区域是我国重要的果树生产地, 也是害虫入侵的关键路径。因此, 应加强该地区的监控与防范措施, 减少害虫的扩散风险, 保障果树产业的可持续发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Euzophera pyriella is a a major pest threatening various fruit tree species and poses a serious challenge to the sustainable development of the fruit industry. To predict its potential geographic distribution and spatial pattern changes in suitable habitat under different climate scenarios in China, this study selected key environmental variables influencing its distribution. Based on current distribution data, the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS was used to simulate the potential distribution of E.pyriella under current and future climate scenarios (SSP245 for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, and SSP585 for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080). The results show that the MaxEnt model performed well, with a mean AUC of 0.992±0.002 3 for the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, indicating high predictive accuracy. The potential suitable habitats for E.pyriella are mainly concentrated in northwest China, with temperature and humidity being the most influential factors. Under current climate conditions, E.pyriella is predominantly distributed north of the Taklamakan Desert, south of the Tianshan Mountains, the Hexi Corridor in Gansu, the Loess Plateau north of Lanzhou, and regions in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and parts of Qinghai, with a total suitable area of 877 500 km2. Among these, 53 900 km2 are highly suitable, 130 600 km2 moderately suitable, and 693 000 km2 lowly suitable. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas are projected to expand. In the SSP245 scenario, the centroid of the distribution is projected to shift southward first and then northward, indicating a general trend of northward expansion. In contrast, under the SSP585 scenario, the centroid shifts eastward first and then westward, with an overall westward expansion and an increase in suitable habitat area. These findings highlight northwestern China as a hotspot for E.pyriella invasion and fruit production region, emphasizing the need for strengthened monitoring and early warning strategies to mitigate spread and support sustainable orchard development. |
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