| 张文瑶1, 陈雪荣2, 谢洪芳3, 田艳丽1, 4*, 胡白石1, 4.基于MaxEnt模型预测瓜类细菌性果斑病在中国的潜在地理分布[J].植物保护,2025,51(1):102-110. |
| 基于MaxEnt模型预测瓜类细菌性果斑病在中国的潜在地理分布 |
| Potential distribution prediction of bacterial fruit blotch of melons in China based on MaxEnt |
| 投稿时间：2024-02-02 修订日期：2024-03-12 |
| DOI：10.16688/j.zwbh.2024066 |
| 中文关键词: 瓜类细菌性果斑病 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 潜在地理分布 |
| 英文关键词:bacterial fruit blotch of melons MaxEnt model climate change potential distribution |
| 基金项目:江苏现代农业产业技术体系建设项目(JATS[2023]315) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 张文瑶1, 陈雪荣2, 谢洪芳3, 田艳丽1, 4*, 胡白石1, 4 | 1. 南京农业大学植物保护学院, 农业农村部植物检疫性有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 南京 210095
2. 宁夏回族自治区固原市彭阳县农业技术推广服务中心, 固原 756599
3. 南京市植保植检站, 南京 210008
4. 新疆农业生物安全重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830091 | tianyanli@njau.edu.cn |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 瓜类细菌性果斑病(bacterial fruit blotch)是瓜类作物上重要的种传细菌性病害, 病原菌为西瓜噬酸菌Acidovorax citrulli?我国是全球西甜瓜的主要生产区?近年来, 瓜类细菌性果斑病的频繁发生已严重影响我国西甜瓜产业的健康发展?为明确瓜类细菌性果斑病在我国的适生性, 根据其在全球的最新分布数据, 本研究利用MaxEnt模型结合ArcGIS软件预测了瓜类细菌性果斑病在我国的潜在地理分布?结果表明, MaxEnt模型的平均AUC (area under curve, AUC)值均大于0.9, 预测结果的准确性较高?在历史气候条件下, 瓜类细菌性果斑病适生区分布广泛, 主要包括华中?华南和华东地区, 以及部分华北?东北地区, 占我国面积的47.36%?影响瓜类细菌性果斑病在我国潜在分布区域的主要气候因子包括最热月份最高温度?月平均昼夜温差?最干月份降水量和最干季平均温度?未来气候情景无论是低环境压迫还是高环境压迫, 适生区面积均呈现增长的趋势, 预示着随着气候的变化, 瓜类细菌性果斑病在我国发生的风险不断增加, 因此建议应加强检疫监测和防控, 严防其扩散? |
| 英文摘要: |
| Acidovorax citrulli, is the causal agent of bacterial fruit blotch (BFB), a serious seed borne disease affecting cucurbit crops worldwide, particularly watermelon and melon. China is a major global producer of these crops. In recent years, frequent BFB outbreaks have significantly impacted the healthy development of China’s watermelon industry. This study predicted the potential distribution of BFB in China, using the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS, based on recent global distribution data. The average AUC values of all models exceeded 0.9, indicating high prediction accuracy. Under historical climate conditions, suitable areas for BFP cover 47.36% of China’s area, including most of central, south and east China, as well as parts of north and northeast China. The main climate factors influencing the potential distribution were the maximum temperature of the warmest month, mean diurnal range monthly, precipitation of the driest month, and mean temperature of the driest quarter. In future climate scenarios, both low and high environmental pressure scenarios, the suitable areas will expand, indicating an increased risk of BFB occurrence with climate change. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen quarantine monitoring and prevention efforts to prevent its spread. |
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