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张心怡1, 2, 赵 健2*, 李志鹏2, 王苗苗2, 陈 宏2.基于4种生态位模型的长芒苋潜在适生区预测[J].植物保护,2023,49(2):73-82.
基于4种生态位模型的长芒苋潜在适生区预测
Prediction of the potential suitable areas of Amaranthus palmeri in China based on four ecological niche models
投稿时间:2022-07-05  修订日期:2022-07-18
DOI:10.16688/j.zwbh.2022399
中文关键词:  长芒苋  潜在适生区  生态位模型  模型评价
英文关键词:Amaranthus palmeri  potential suitable areas  ecological niche model  model evaluation
基金项目:国家重点研发计划 (2021YFC2600403); 福建省自然科学基金 (2020J011376); 福建省农业高质量发展协同创新工程 (XTCXGC2021015); 福建省智慧农业科技创新团队 (CXTD2021013-1)
作者单位E-mail
张心怡1, 2, 赵 健2*, 李志鹏2, 王苗苗2, 陈 宏2 ZHANG Xinyi1, 2, ZHAO Jian2*, LI Zhipeng2, WANG Miaomiao2, CHEN Hong2 zhaojian@faas.cn 
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中文摘要:
      恶性入侵杂草长芒苋Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson对农业生产和生物多样性造成严重威胁?预测其潜在适生区对粮食安全和生物多样性保护至关重要?不同模型由于算法不同对长芒苋潜在适生区的预测结果存在差异?本研究综合4种生态位模型 (MaxEnt?GARP?BIOCLIM和DOMAIN) 预测长芒苋在我国的潜在适生区以提高预测准确性?结果表明, 4种模型的平均AUC值均大于0.85?MaxEnt和DOMAIN的平均Kappa值大于0.81; BIOCLIM和GARP的平均Kappa值大于0.69?MaxEnt的预测精度和稳定性要略胜一筹?BIOCLIM和MaxEnt的预测结果较为收敛, DOMAIN和GARP预测的适生区范围较广, 由此预测的长芒苋潜在适生区分别占我国陆地总面积的20.66%和32.38%, 48.39%和49.76%?综合预测结果, 长芒苋在我国的适生区主要集中在中东部地区, 西北和东北地区则是长芒苋存在的边缘环境地区?
英文摘要:
      Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson, a malignant invasive weed, poses a serious threat to agricultural production and biodiversity. Predicting potential suitable areas is crucial for food security and biodiversity conservation. Different models give different predictions on the potential suitable areas of A. palmeri due to different algorithms. In this study, four ecological niche models (MaxEnt, GARP, BIOCLIM and DOMAIN) were used to comprehensively predict the potential suitable areas of A. palmeri in China to improve the accuracy of prediction. The results showed that the average AUC values of the four models were all greater than 0.85; the average Kappa values of MaxEnt and DOMAIN were greater than 0.81, and the average Kappa values of BIOCLIM and GARP were greater than 0.69. The prediction accuracy and stability of MaxEnt were better. In addition, the prediction results by BIOCLIM and MaxEnt were relatively convergent, while DOMAIN and GARP predicted a wider distribution of suitable areas. The predicted potential suitable areas of A. palmeri accounted for 20.66%, 32.38%, 48.39% and 49.76% of the total land area in China, respectively. Based on comprehensive prediction results, the suitable areas of A. palmeri in China were mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions, and the northwest and northeast regions were the marginal environmental areas.
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