| 周益林*, 聂 晓, 刘 伟, 范洁茹, 梁革梅, 陆宴辉.郭予元院士在植物保护数理统计学上的学术贡献——纪念郭予元院士诞辰90周年[J].植物保护,2023,49(1):6-12. |
| 郭予元院士在植物保护数理统计学上的学术贡献——纪念郭予元院士诞辰90周年 |
| Contributions of Academician Guo Yuyuan in the mathematical statistics of plant protection——To commemorate the 90th anniversary of the birth of Academician Guo Yuyuan |
| 投稿时间：2022-11-08 修订日期：2022-11-14 |
| DOI：10.16688/j.zwbh.2022701 |
| 中文关键词: 郭予元 数理统计学 植物保护 相关和回归分析紧凑算法 计算器编程 统计学教学和普及 |
| 英文关键词:Guo Yuyuan mathematical statistics plant protection compact algorithm for correlation and regression analysis calculator programming statistics teaching and popularizing |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1401000); 国家自然科学基金（32072359） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 数理统计学作为一门实用性极强的学科已广泛应用于社会各个领域中, 其在植物保护学科中特别是病虫害监测和预测中的应用也尤为重要。郭予元院士作为将数理统计学应用在植保学科领域的先驱研究者之一, 从20世纪50年代中期开始, 在数理统计学的理论和方法、数理统计在植物保护学科中应用研究及其相关的教育普及等方面做了大量工作。本文回顾了他在植物保护数理统计学上做出的重要贡献, 主要包括:从20世纪60年代开始, 郭予元院士就创造性地提出了相关和回归分析的紧凑计算法、正交多项式系数复原表以及利用一系列早期型号计算器开发出几乎涵盖植保学科常用的数理统计学方法或模型的编码程序, 为植保数理统计学提供了重要的理论和方法; 早在20世纪50年代中期, 郭予元院士就在试验研究中应用相关的数理统计学方法, 建立了当时国内少见的预测稻瘟病病情和最佳防治时期的中长期预测模型, 此后他在病虫害的研究上特别是害虫生命表、种群动态、多病虫危害产量损失和复合防治指标等方面应用了大量的数理统计方法, 使得不少植保学科数据分析中所面临的难题、障碍和科学问题得到有效解决, 并取得许多丰硕的研究成果, 大大推进并带动了数理统计学在植保科学研究中的应用; 自20世纪80年代初开始, 郭予元院士通过在全国举办植保数理统计学讲习班或以研究生授课等方式, 培养出了一大批懂数理统计的植保领域的专家和学者, 为植保数理统计学在我国的普及和应用也做出了重要贡献。本文还介绍了郭予元院士的研究团队在后续研究中, 继承和发展郭予元院士的学术思想, 运用植保数理统计学在棉花害虫研究领域做出了世界一流水平的研究成果, 并对未来植保数理统计学研究做了展望。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Mathematical statistics as a highly practical discipline has been widely used in various fields of society, and is also very important in plant protection discipline. Academician Guo Yuyuan, who is one of the pioneers in applying mathematical statistics in plant protection, especially in the monitoring and prediction of plant diseases and insect pests has done a lot of work since the mid-1950s, including the theory and methods of mathematical statistics, application in plant protection, and education popularization of mathematical statistics. In this paper, the main contributions of Academician Guo in mathematical statistics were reviewed. In the aspects of theory and methods of mathematical statistics, since the 1960s, Academician Guo creatively proposed the compact calculation method for correlation and regression analysis, and the restoration table of orthogonal polynomial coefficients, and developed coding programs which covering almost all mathematical statistical methods or models commonly used in plant protection disciplines using a series of early calculators which provided important theories and methods of mathematical statistics in plant protection. In the aspect of application in plant protection, Academician Guo applied mathematical and statistical methods in experimental researches and established the medium- and long-term prediction models for predicting the disease index and the optimum date for rice blast control in the mid-1950s. Afterwards, he applied mathematical statistical methods in researches on pests and diseases, especially on the life table of insects, population dynamics, yield loss and compound control index caused by multiple pests and diseases, effectively solved obstacles and scientific problems or issues in data analyses in plant protection disciplines, achieved many fruitful research results, and promoted and strengthened the application of mathematical statistics in plant protection. In the aspect of education popularization, since the early 1980s, he had trained a large number of experts and scholars in the field of plant protection, and made great contributions to the comprehensive popularization and application of mathematical statistics in plant protection. In addition, this paper also introduced that Academician Guo Yuyuan’s research team inherited and developed academic ideas in the follow-up research, and made world-class research results in the field of cotton pests by using mathematical statistics in plant protection. In the end, future researches on mathematical statistics in plant protection were prospected. |
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