| 岳 伟1, 陈 曦1, 姚卫平2, 王 军3, 王晓东1*, 邓 斌4, 邱 坤5.安徽省小麦赤霉病气象风险评估与区划[J].植物保护,2022,48(5):167-173. |
| 安徽省小麦赤霉病气象风险评估与区划 |
| Meteorological risk assessment and regionalization of wheat scab in Anhui province |
| 投稿时间：2021-08-11 修订日期：2021-09-04 |
| DOI：10.16688/j.zwbh.2021433 |
| 中文关键词: 小麦赤霉病 气象风险 区划 安徽 |
| 英文关键词:wheat scab meteorological risk zonation Anhui |
| 基金项目:安徽省气象局研究型业务攻关项目(YJG202103); 科技助力经济2020重点专项(KJZLJJ202002) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 岳 伟1, 陈 曦1, 姚卫平2, 王 军3, 王晓东1*, 邓 斌4, 邱 坤5 | 1. 安徽省农业气象中心, 合肥 230031
2. 安徽省池州市农技推广中心植保站, 池州 247000
3. 安徽省滁州市南谯区植保植检站, 滁州 239000
4. 安徽省宣城市宣州区植保植检站, 宣城 242000
5. 安徽省植物保护总站, 合肥 231400 | wxd040303118@qq.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于小麦赤霉病发生流行与气象条件的关系, 本文利用安徽省7个代表站历年赤霉病病穗率资料和对应的气象资料, 通过相关性分析, 确定影响赤霉病发生的主要气象因子?采用加权求和?回归分析等方法构建赤霉病发生综合气象条件指数, 并划分赤霉病发生气象等级对应的综合气象条件指数阈值?根据各站点历年小麦赤霉病对应的不同气象等级发生概率, 结合赤霉病不同等级危害程度, 形成赤霉病气象风险指数?在此基础上, 利用GIS技术开展安徽省小麦赤霉病发生气象风险区划?结果表明:小麦赤霉病发生关键期降水日数?降水量?相对湿度≥80%的日数是影响其发生程度的主要气象因子; 安徽省小麦赤霉病不同等级气象风险区域总体呈现纬向分布, 极高风险区主要位于沿江西部和江南大部, 高风险区主要位于大别山区?江淮和沿江大部?皖南东部, 中等风险区位于淮北中南部?沿淮大部和江淮东部, 低风险区位于淮北北部和沿淮中部?针对不同等级风险区域, 可以通过调整种植结构?加强田间管理?选用抗病品种?强化精准施药技术等方式, 预防或减轻赤霉病对小麦的危害? |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the relationship between the incidence and epidemic of wheat scab and meteorological conditions, this study defined the main meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of wheat scab by analyzing correlation between the percentages of diseased panicles and the corresponding meteorological data over the years from seven representative stations in Anhui province. Then we constructed the comprehensive meteorological condition index of wheat scab incidence, and divided the comprehensive meteorological condition index thresholds corresponding to different incidence grades of wheat scab, using weighted-sum method and regression analysis method. Next the meteorological risk index of wheat scab was estimated according to the occurrence probability of different meteorological grades of wheat scab at each station over the years and combined with the different damage grades of wheat scab. On this basis, the meteorological risk zoning of wheat scab in Anhui was carried out by GIS. The results showed that the main meteorological factors affecting the incidence of wheat scab were the precipitation days, precipitation and days with a relative humidity higher than 80% in critical period. The meteorological risk areas of different grades of wheat scab in Anhui generally showed a zonal distribution: the extremely high risk areas were mainly located in the west along the Yangtze River and most of the south of the Yangtze River; the high risk areas were mainly located in the region of Dabie Mountains, the region between the Yangtze River and the Huai River, most regions along the Yangtze River, and the eastern region of Southern Anhui; the medium risk areas were located in the south-central Huaibei, the region along the Huai River and the east of Jianghuai, and the low risk areas were located in the north of Huaibei and middle along Huaibei river. In the areas of different risk levels, the harm of scab to wheat may be prevented or reduced by adjusting planting structure, strengthening field management, selecting disease-resistant varieties and strengthening precision application technology. |
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