| 李鸿筠, 刘浩强, 姚廷山, 冉春, 胡军华.柑橘矢尖蚧发生期预测回归方程研究[J].植物保护,2021,47(2):83-87. |
| 柑橘矢尖蚧发生期预测回归方程研究 |
| Predication regression equations for the occurrence period of the arrowhead scale, Unaspis yanonensis |
| 投稿时间：2019-12-24 修订日期：2020-02-22 |
| DOI：10.16688/j.zwbh.2019714 |
| 中文关键词: 柑橘 矢尖蚧 发生期 预测 回归方程 |
| 英文关键词:citrus Unaspis yanonensis occurrence period predication regression equation |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 399 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 矢尖蚧是危害柑橘生产的重要害虫之一, 搞好测报可以指导适时防治。笔者在重庆市北碚区柑橘园对矢尖蚧进行多年系统监测，结果表明, 矢尖蚧在该地一年发生3代, 世代重叠，第1代发生较为整齐, 便于统一防治。因此, 以2012年－2018年该虫发生前3个月的气象资料和矢尖蚧发生的田间历史数据为依据, 应用DPS软件, 分别采用简单法和多因子互作法进行逐步回归, 建立了春季矢尖蚧第1代发生期的预测回归方程。两个方程总体回归达显著水平或极显著水平, 两种方法建立的回归方程证明:第1代发生高峰期与发生前3个月的温度、湿度、雨日和降雨量等气象资料均有关系。将2019年数据用来进行检验, 结果表明两个回归方程结论均为“比较准确”, 均能比较准确地预测出该地矢尖蚧的发生高峰期。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The arrowhead scale (Unaspis yanonensis) is one of the important pests of citrus. Good forecasting can guide prevention and control of this pest in time. For many years, the author has carried out systematic monitoring of arrowhead scale in citrus gardens in Beibei district of Chongqing. The results showed that three overlapping generations occurred in this area every year. The first generation occurred more regularly, which benefits unified prevention. Therefore, based on the meteorological data of the three months prior to the occurrence of arrowhead scale from 2012 to 2018 and the field historical data, DPS software was applied to carry out stepwise regression by using simple and multi-factor interaction methods, respectively. The prediction regression equation of the first-generation occurrence period of arrowhead scale in spring was established. The total regression of the two equations reached the significant or extremely significant level. The regression equations established by using the two methods indicated that the first-generation peak was related to the meteorological data such as temperature, humidity, rain days and rainfall in the preceding three months. The data of 2019 were used for testing, and the results showed that the two regression equations were “relatively accurate”, both of which could accurately predict the occurrence peak of arrowhead scale in this area. |
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