杨文刚1, 2, 孟翠丽2*, 望 勇4, 刘可群3, 司升云4, 陆鹏程2.甜菜夜蛾发生程度的气象等级预报模型[J].植物保护,2018,44(3):105-110. |
甜菜夜蛾发生程度的气象等级预报模型 |
Prediction model of meteorological grading for Spodoptera exigua |
投稿时间:2018-01-22 修订日期:2018-02-07 |
DOI:10.16688/j.zwbh.2018036 |
中文关键词: 甜菜夜蛾 气象等级 预报 |
英文关键词:Spodoptera exigua meteorological grade forecast |
基金项目:湖北省气象局科技发展基金重点项目(2015Z04) |
作者 | 单位 | 杨文刚1, 2, 孟翠丽2*, 望 勇4, 刘可群3, 司升云4, 陆鹏程2 | 1.湖北省黄石市气象局, 黄石 435002 2. 湖北省武汉农业气象试验站, 武汉 430040 3.湖北省武汉区域气候中心, 武汉 430074 4. 湖北省武汉市农业科学院蔬菜科学研究所, 武汉 430065 |
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中文摘要: |
甜菜夜蛾是严重影响蔬菜产量和品质的害虫, 其发生发展与气象条件关系十分密切。为探索气象条件与甜菜夜蛾发生程度的关系, 开展甜菜夜蛾发生程度气象等级预报服务, 选取2009—2010年湖北省甜菜夜蛾虫情资料和对应台站的气象资料, 对甜菜夜蛾发生程度等级与各项气象因子做相关分析, 在此基础上, 筛选出模型因子, 采用多元线性回归分析方法, 构建了湖北省甜菜夜蛾发生程度气象等级预报模型, 并对模型验证。结果表明:历史回代检验旬检验结果达基本一致以上的为76%; 独立样本预测检验旬值达基本一致以上的为63%, 模型总体预报结果较好, 可为湖北省开展甜菜夜蛾气象等级预报业务提供技术支撑。 |
英文摘要: |
Spodoptera exigua is a pest seriously affecting the yield and quality of vegetables, the occurrence and development of which are highly related with meteorological conditions. To explore the relationships between meteorological conditions and the occurrence of S. exigua, we developed the meteorological grading prediction model for the epidemics of S. exigua. Correlation analysis between the occurrence degree of S. exigua and meteorological conditions was carried out using data of S. exigua and the corresponding meteorological stations in Hubei Province from 2009 to 2010. On this basis, we screened out the model factors and constructed the prediction model for the occurrence of S. exigua by adopting the multivariable linear regression method. The results of ten-day test in historical resubstitution reached a basic agreement of 76%, and the independent sample prediction test had a basic consistency of 63%. The overall prediction results were qualified, which can provide technical support for the meteorological grading prediction service for S. exigua occurrence in Hubei Province. |
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