| 徐 敏1, 徐经纬2, 高 苹1, 吴洪颜1*, 罗晓春1, 任义方1.基于大尺度因子的江苏稻区稻瘟病气象等级长期预测[J].植物保护,2017,43(4):36-41. |
| 基于大尺度因子的江苏稻区稻瘟病气象等级长期预测 |
| Long term prediction models based on large scale factors for meteorological grade of the rice blast in Jiangsu rice area |
| 投稿时间：2016-09-02 修订日期：2016-12-07 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 水稻稻瘟病 气象等级预测 海温 大气环流指数 |
| 英文关键词:rice blast prediction model of meteorological grade sea surface temperature atmospheric circulation index |
| 基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306035); 江苏省气象局科研基金面上项目(KM201504, KM201707) |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 徐 敏1, 徐经纬2, 高 苹1, 吴洪颜1*, 罗晓春1, 任义方1 | 1. 江苏省气象局, 南京 210008
2. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气候与环境变化国际合作 联合实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 资料同化研究与应用中心, 南京 210044 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为较早地准确预测水稻稻瘟病发生发展的气象等级, 利用大气环流和太平洋海温对气象条件影响的滞后性, 采用最优相关和空间拓扑分析技术, 结合滑动平均和主成分识别法, 筛选出对江苏稻区稻瘟病指数影响最显著且稳定独立的大尺度预报因子, 分别建立了基于大气环流因子和基于海温因子的稻瘟病气象等级长期预测模型。经历史拟合和试报检验, 模型效果理想, 能提前一个月预测出水稻稻瘟病发生的气象等级。该模型的预测结果对江苏稻区稻瘟病防治具有重要意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to predict the degree of meteorological grade of rice blast early and accurately, two long term prediction models of meteorological grade for rice blast were established based on the atmospheric circulation factors and based on SST factors by the optimal correlation and spatial topological analysis technology and the impact of atmospheric circulation and Pacific SST on meteorological conditions (tread effect). In addition, the methods of moving average and principal component were used for the forecast factor having stability and independence to the comprehensive index of rice blast. Furthermore, through the historical fitting and forecast testing, the results of the prediction models were satisfactory. The meteorological grade of rice blast could be predicted by the models at least one month in advance. Therefore, the prediction results have a significant guiding meaning for agricultural prevention and control of rice blast in Jiangsu rice area |
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