| 李培先1,2, 林 峻3, 麦迪·库尔曼3, 吴建国3, 刘永强1,2, 郑江华1,2*.气候变化对新疆意大利蝗潜在分布的影响[J].植物保护,2017,43(3):90-96. |
| 气候变化对新疆意大利蝗潜在分布的影响 |
| Effects of future climate change on potential geographic distribution of Calliptamus italicus (L.) in Xinjiang |
| 投稿时间：2016-07-20 修订日期：2016-09-11 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 意大利蝗 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 RCPs 气候情景 地理信息系统 预测 |
| 英文关键词:Calliptamus italicus MaxEnt model climate change RCPs climate scenario GIS prediction |
| 基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区治蝗灭鼠指挥办公室委托项目(2016);新疆维吾尔自治区高层次人才培养计划项目(10440002);教育部创新团队项目(IRT1180) |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 李培先1,2, 林 峻3, 麦迪·库尔曼3, 吴建国3, 刘永强1,2, 郑江华1,2* | 1. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院, 乌鲁木齐 830046
2. 新疆大学智慧城市与环境建模普通高校重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830046
3. 新疆维吾尔自治区治蝗灭鼠指挥部办公室, 乌鲁木齐 830001 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 意大利蝗Calliptamus italicus (L.)是新疆草原主要优势蝗虫之一,每年给新疆畜牧业经济带来严重损失,气候变化对其潜在分布影响的预测对其科学防治有重要意义。本研究采用意大利蝗的分布数据和生物气候数据,结合MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件,预测了BCC_CSM1.1气候模式下政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次工作报告(IPCC AR5)采用的RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种气候情景在2021-2040年(2030s)、2041-2060年(2050s)和2061-2080年(2070s)的意大利蝗新疆潜在适生区分布范围。结果表明:在BCC_CSM1.1的各情景下,意大利蝗适生区在北疆及天山一带分布格局基本保持不变,但高度适生区面积都有所增加,其中在天山和阿尔泰山地区,意大利蝗中、高度适生区范围将向更高海拔区域蔓延,在北疆阿勒泰地区高度适生区明显增加。极端水分条件和水热条件对意大利蝗在新疆潜在分布发挥主要作用,其中4月、10月、3月和11月降水量对意大利蝗在新疆潜在分布影响最大,因其直接影响土壤相对含水量和土壤温度,从而决定意大利蝗卵的存活量。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Calliptamus italicus (L.) is one of the dominant species of grassland locusts in Xinjiang. It is widely distributed and has caused several serious hazards in history of Xinjiang. The predictions of its potential geographic distribution under future climate changes have important significance for its scientific prevention and treatment. Using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software with GPS data of C.italicus actual distribution and biological climate data in Xinjiang, the potential geographic distribution of C.italicus under the current climate conditions (1950-2000)were predicted, and its potential geographic distribution was also predicted using BCCCSM1.1 (Beijing Climate Center_Climate System Model version 1.1) in three periods, 2021-2040 (2030s), 2041-2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070s), under three climate change scenarios, namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which were adopted by IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The results showed that Northern Xinjiang and Tianshan Mountains regions were the major potential distribution regions. This distribution pattern remained unchanged in the future, but the area of highlevel suitable distribution regions increased. The moderate and highlevel suitable distribution regions of C.italicus would spread to higheraltitude area of Tianshan Mountains and Altai Mountains. A significant increase of highlevel suitable distribution region would occur in Altai region of northern Xinjiang. Extreme moisture and hydrothermal synchronization conditions were the environmental factors for the prediction. The rainfall in April, October, March and November had the greatest impact on the potential distribution of C.italicus because the direct impact on the soil relative water content and soil temperature could determine the survival situation of C.italicus eggs. |
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