| 蒋龙燕1,2,3，罗大全2,3，车海彦2,3，杨毅2,3，曹学仁2,3*，殷永涛4.时间序列分析在橡胶白粉病预测中的应用研究[J].植物保护,2014,40(2):81-84. |
| 时间序列分析在橡胶白粉病预测中的应用研究 |
| Application of time series analysis in the forecasting of rubber tree powdery mildew |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 橡胶白粉病 病情指数 时间序列分析 |
| 英文关键词:rubber tree powdery mildew disease index time series analysis |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1443 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 运用指数平滑法、自回归分析法、移动平均分析法、自回归移动平均法对1962-2003年期间海南农垦橡胶树白粉病的病情指数进行预测，并对这4种方法研究结果进行比较。结果表明，4种分析方法均能较好地预测橡胶白粉病的发生趋势，但自回归移动平均法的预测效果较好。因此可以利用时间序列分析法预测橡胶白粉病。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Disease index of rubber tree powdery mildew in Hainan State Farms during 1962-2003 was predicted using 4 time series analysis methods including exponential smoothing (ES), autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and autoregressive and moving average (ARMA). The forecasting effects of these four methods were compared. The results showed that the occurrence trend of rubber tree powdery mildew can be preferably fitted by the 4 methods, and ARMA had the fittest predicting effect. Therefore, time series analysis can be used for rubber tree powdery mildew forecasting. |
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