| Global climate change, characterized by climate warming, can affect overwintering boundary of agricultural insect pests. Based on GIS technology, the influences of climate warming on the overwintering boundary of the brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens, was analyzed for 2020s (2010-2039) and 2050s (2040-2069). The climate change scenario used was A1B and the average overwintering boundary from 1961 to 1990 was used as the baseline. The results showed that, in 2020s, the northern boundary of intermittent overwintering region will move northward by about 50 km and of safe overwintering region, by around 110 km. In 2050s, the two boundaries will shift northward by about 120 km and 250 km, respectively. The results also revealed regional difference in the northward shift of overwintering boundaries due to latitude, longitude and altitude. With the northward shift of overwintering boundaries, area of overwintering region will increase. In 2020s, area of intermittent overwintering region will expand by about 0.119 3 million km2 or 23.24%, and the area of safe overwintering region, by about 0.020 8 million km2 or 0.66 fold, as compared with those of the baseline period. In 2050s, the area of the two overwintering regions will increase by 0.259 9 million km2 or 50.63% and 0.188 2 million km2 or 5.93fold, respectively. The current results suggest that climate warming will enlarge the distribution of overwintering BPH, the northern boundary of safe overwintering region will shift northward more than that of intermittent overwintering region. |
