| 邓自旺1,2;周晓兰1;倪绍祥2;邓自发3;屠其璞1.环青海湖地区草地蝗虫发生测报的气候指标研究[J].植物保护,2005,31(2):29-33. |
| 环青海湖地区草地蝗虫发生测报的气候指标研究 |
| Climatic predictors for infestation of rangeland grasshoppers in the areas around Qinghai Lake |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 植物病虫害测报学 草地蝗虫 测报 气候指标 |
| 英文关键词:forecasting of plant diseases and pests rangeland grasshopper prediction climatic index |
| 基金项目: |
| 邓自旺1 2;周晓兰1;倪绍祥2;邓自发3;屠其璞1 |
| 1.南京信息工程大学江苏省气象灾害和环境变化重点实验室 江苏南京210044;2.南京师范大学地科院 江苏南京210093;3.南通师范学院生命科学与技术系 江苏南通226007 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 采用次序统计量方法,以1988～1999年环青海湖地区草地蝗虫发生程度资料和气候资料研究了蝗虫灾害等级与当地气候指标的定量关系,建立了春季和夏季预测模型,并以此对2000～2003年该地区蝗虫发生状况进行了预测试验。结果表明,敏感气候因子有:上年11～12月气温、3～6月温度及5～6月降水量等。春季预测模型中的指标为:(1)T11<-6℃;(2)T12<-10℃;(3)T3>-4℃;(4)T4>2℃。夏季预测模型中的指标为:(1)(T11+T12)/2<-8.5℃;(2)(T3+T4)/2>-1.5℃;(3)(T5+T6)>7.5℃;(4)(R5+R6)<48mm。当模型中有3个或4个指标满足,则当年可能发生严重蝗虫灾害,当没有或只有1～2个指标满足,则不会发生严重蝗虫灾害。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Climatic predictors for infestation of rangeland grasshopper (IRG) in the areas around Qinghai Lake were investigated by means of order statistics. IRG was sensitive to the following climatic factors, i.e. the temperature from November to December in the previous year (T11T12), from March to June in the present year (T3T6) and the precipitation from May to June (R5R6). The four indices for spring model are: a. T11<-6; b. T12<-10; c. T3>-4; d. T4>2. The four indices for summer model are: a. (T11+T12)/ 2<-8.5; b. (T3+T4)/ 2>-1.5; c. (T5+T6)>7.5; d. (R5+R6)<48mm. Severe grasshopper disaster may take place if 3 or 4 of the above-mentioned indices are satisfied. Slight or no grasshopper infestation will happen if 0 or 1 of the indices is satisfied, or otherwise, a moderate grasshopper infestation may be seen. |
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