| 黄春艳,张匀华,商世吉*,李桦**,张增敏,朱传楹.黑龙江稻区稻瘟病流行趋势预测数学模型研究[J].植物保护,1995,21(2):8-11. |
| 黑龙江稻区稻瘟病流行趋势预测数学模型研究 |
| A study on the Predictive Mathematic Model for Epidemical Tendency of Rice Blast in Rice Districts of Hei-longjiang. |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 稻瘟病，流行趋势，预测模型，气象因子 |
| 英文关键词:rice blast, epidemical tendency, predictive model, climatic factors. |
| 基金项目: |
| 黄春艳 张匀华 商世吉* 李桦** 张增敏 朱传楹 |
| 黑龙江省农科院植保所 哈尔滨 150086;*黑龙江省农科院牡丹江农科所，**黑龙江省农科院合江水稻所 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 应用因子分析和逐步回归方程对黑龙江省水稻主要产区稻瘟病流行情况和气象因素间的关系进行分析，分别制定了牡丹江地区和佳木斯地区非特殊灾变年份的稻瘟病流行趋势预测数学模型：Y(牡)-25.686+ 10. 961X1-2.001X2-10. 173X3+ 3. 55X4-6. 064X5+2.686X6-4.828X7-20. 371X8+M+N±13;Y(佳)=-16. 42+1.082X1-0.544 X2+1. 637X3-.9X4-10. 645X5+M+N±11。用上述方程历史回拟率分别为84.0％和81.9％。经两地近年应用预报均准确。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Through analysing the relationship tetween epidemical tendency of rice blast and the climatic factors in the major rice districts of Heilongjiang by using factorial analysis and stepwise regression equation,epidemical tendency predictive mathematic models of rice blast for a nonparticular calamity year in Mudanjiang and Jiamusi region were established respectively. They are: Y(Mu)-25.686+ 10. 961X1-2.001X2-10. 173X3+ 3. 55X4-6. 064X5+2.686X6-4.828X7-20. 371X8+M+N±13;Y(Jia)=-16. 42+1.082X1-0.544 X2+1. 637X3-.9X4-10. 645X5+M+N±11. The models were also evaluated.Their historical false co-incidence percentages are 84.0%and 81.9%respectively.A better fitness was oberved between the actual and theorebical values in recent years. |
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