| 杜志宏1, 2#, 刘 伟1#, 曹学仁3, 聂 晓1, 2, 范洁茹1*, 王保通2*, 周益林1*, 刘万学1, 徐向明4.气候变化情景下基于MaxEnt的麦瘟病在全球及中国的适生性分析[J].植物保护,2022,48(5):158-166. |
| 气候变化情景下基于MaxEnt的麦瘟病在全球及中国的适生性分析 |
| Suitability analysis of wheat blast in the world and China under climate change scenarios based on MaxEnt |
| 投稿时间：2021-11-15 修订日期：2022-04-08 |
| DOI：10.16688/j.zwbh.2021638 |
| 中文关键词: 麦瘟病 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 气候情景 适生区分布 |
| 英文关键词:wheat blast MaxEnt model climate change climate scenario suitable distribution |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2600400); 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y2017XM09) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 杜志宏1, 2#, 刘 伟1#, 曹学仁3, 聂 晓1, 2, 范洁茹1*, 王保通2*, 周益林1*, 刘万学1, 徐向明4 | 1. 中国农业科学院植物保护研究所, 植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室, 北京 100193
2. 旱区作物逆境生物学国家重点实验室, 西北农林科技大学植物保护学院, 杨凌 712100
3. 中国热带农业科学院环境与植物保护研究所, 农业农村部热带作物有害生物综合治理重点实验室, 海口 571101
4. 英国NIAB东茂林研究所, 东茂林 ME19 6BJ | 范洁茹fanjieru1981@126.com; 王保通wangbt@nwsuaf.edu.cn; 周益林yilinzhou6@163.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 麦瘟病是小麦生产上的一种毁灭性真菌病害, 过去仅在南美洲流行?2016年该病害在亚洲的孟加拉国首次出现, 给世界尤其我国小麦生产带来重大潜在威胁?本研究基于麦瘟病当前在全球(包括孟加拉国)的分布数据和生物气候数据, 采用MaxEnt生态位模型和ArcGIS软件, 预测了当前气候条件下麦瘟病在全球特别是在我国的潜在适生区, 以及RCP2.6?RCP4.5?RCP6.0和RCP8.5 4种气候变化情景下2030s?2050s和2070s麦瘟病在中国潜在适生区分布范围, 进而以刀切法分析了影响其分布的主要气候因子, 并采用ROC对预测结果进行检验?结果表明, 在当前和未来不同气候情景下, 麦瘟病在中国的中风险和高风险区面积将呈增加趋势, 未来情景下与当前气候情景下相比, 中风险和高风险区的面积比例增加范围为0.08%~1.63%, 其中温度和湿度条件对麦瘟病的潜在分布区影响最大?此研究结果对于我国麦瘟病的检疫和防控提供了技术支撑? |
| 英文摘要: |
| Wheat blast is a devastating fungal disease, which occurred only in South America in the past. However, since the disease first appeared in Bangladesh in Asia in 2016, it posed a significant potential threat to the world’s, especially to China’s wheat production. Based on the distribution data and biological climate data of wheat blast in the world (including Bangladesh), MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the suitable areas for wheat blast in the world under the current climate, especially in China, and the distribution range and potential suitable areas of wheat blast in China in the 2030s, 2050s and 2070s under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, and then the main environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed by Jackknife, and the prediction results were tested by receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC). The results showed that, under current and future different climate scenarios, the medium- and high-risk areas of wheat blast in China would increase, and the increased proportion of medium- and high-risk areas would range between 0.08%-1.63%. Temperature and humidity had the greatest influences on the potential distribution areas of wheat blast. This study provides a technical support for quarantine, prevention and control of wheat blast in China. |
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